THE EVIDENCE
The UK government has pledged to create 240,000 green jobs by 2030. However, evidence from industry surveys and recent policy changes suggests the workforce delivering retrofit upgrades is already shrinking. The figures below highlight the growing risk to retrofit jobs, small businesses, and the UK's capacity to upgrade homes and tackle fuel poverty.
KEY RETROFIT WORKFORCE STATISTICS
240,000
Green jobs promised by 2030
12,100
Retrofit jobs lost since late 2025
Up to 79,878
Additional retrofit jobs at risk
£5.3bn
Cut in Fuel Poverty Funding
These figures highlight a growing contradiction. While Labour has pledged to create 240,000 green jobs by 2030, the workforce delivering retrofit upgrades today is already shrinking. Industry surveys show 12,100 retrofit jobs have already been lost, with tens of thousands more potentially at risk as work across the sector declines. ECO4 and GBIS provided an estimated £1.7bn per annum for fuel poor households. This means that, without a replacement for ECO, almost £6.9bn has been cut from the fuel poverty budget over the next 4 years, replaced with just £1.5bn from general taxation - a real term cut of £5.3bn over the same period. If funding and delivery capacity continue to shrink, the UK risks losing the skilled workforce needed to upgrade homes and tackle fuel poverty.
Retrofit Delivery Infrastructure
Over the past 13 years, the UK has built a national retrofit delivery infrastructure capable of upgrading homes at scale.
This delivery system supports thousands of skilled jobs and specialist organisations across the country. It includes the entire supply chain required to deliver home energy upgrades safely and effectively.
This workforce includes:
- Installers delivering insulation, heating upgrades and ventilation systems
- Retrofit assessors carrying out property surveys
- Retrofit coordinators responsible for PAS 2035 compliance
- Surveyors and technical specialists
- Managing agents coordinating large-scale projects
- Subcontractors supporting installation teams
- Manufacturers and suppliers of retrofit materials and equipment
- Energy suppliers administering schemes such as ECO
- Compliance and oversight systems including Trustmark
Together, this infrastructure allows the UK to deliver large-scale energy efficiency programmes.
If this delivery network collapses, the UK will lose the capacity needed to upgrade homes, reduce fuel poverty, and meet its energy efficiency and net-zero targets.
Rebuilding this workforce would take years.
Policy Uncertainty and Tendering Timelines
In many cases, procurement processes for delivery frameworks were completed before the government confirmed that there would be no direct successor to the ECO scheme.
Businesses invested time and resources building delivery capacity, and training staff to deliver future programmes.
The subsequent announcement that ECO would not be replaced with a similar national scheme has left many companies without the work they had prepared to deliver.
This sudden shift has created a significant gap between the existing workforce and the funding needed to sustain it.
Policy Stability and Investor Confidence
The UK’s home energy upgrade sector has been shaped by decades of short-term or stop-start government programmes. These frequent policy changes create uncertainty for businesses and make it difficult for companies to invest in training, equipment and workforce expansion. Without long-term stability, businesses will be reluctant to hire and train the thousands of additional workers needed to meet the Government’s ambition of creating 240,000 green jobs by 2030. If the existing workforce disappears now, rebuilding it later will be significantly more expensive and far slower. A stable, long-term policy framework is essential if the UK is to maintain the skilled workforce required to upgrade homes and tackle fuel poverty.
Energy Security and Volatile Global Energy Prices
Global energy markets remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, and the UK remains exposed to fluctuations in international gas and oil prices which directly affect household energy bills. Improving the energy efficiency of homes is one of the most effective ways to protect households from rising energy costs and reduce the UK’s dependence on volatile fossil fuel markets. The skilled workforce delivering home energy upgrades therefore plays an important role not only in achieving climate goals but also in strengthening the UK's energy security. Losing this workforce would make it far harder for the UK to respond to future energy price shocks and protect households from rising bills.
Oversight and standards
The retrofit sector recognises that some past programmes, including ECO4, faced challenges around workmanship, compliance, oversight, and quality assurance.
Strong oversight and quality assurance are essential to protect households and ensure upgrades are delivered properly.
However, the solution is better oversight — not dismantling the workforce that delivers these programmes.
Over the past decade, the sector has developed:
• PAS 2035 retrofit standards
• TrustMark oversight and compliance systems
• installer accreditation and auditing
• managing agents coordinating delivery and quality assurance
These systems were designed to improve accountability and quality across the sector. The focus now should be on strengthening oversight and improving delivery — not dismantling the national infrastructure needed to upgrade homes.
Fuel Poverty and Housing Needs in the UK
Around 4 million
UK households living in fuel poverty
£1.4 billion per year
Estimated NHS cost linked to poor housing conditions
Over 11 million
Homes below EPC C in England and Wales
Home energy upgrades are one of the most effective ways to reduce energy bills, improve living conditions, and protect vulnerable households.
If the retrofit workforce continues to shrink, millions of households waiting for warmer homes will face longer delays in receiving the upgrades they need.
The UK also has some of the least energy-efficient housing in Western Europe. Many homes were built before modern insulation standards, leaving millions of households living in properties that are harder and more expensive to heat.
Improving the energy efficiency of these homes is essential to reducing energy bills, tackling fuel poverty, and lowering pressure on public services.
Area-Based Delivery Risks Creating a Postcode Lottery
Future retrofit funding is expected to focus increasingly on area-based delivery, targeting specific neighbourhoods or streets at a time.
While area-based programmes can be effective in some circumstances, they risk creating a postcode lottery for support.
Households living just outside targeted streets may face the same high energy bills and poorly insulated homes but receive no access to support.
A balanced national programme should ensure that fuel-poor households across the country can access upgrades, rather than limiting support to small geographic areas.
Sources
Data on retrofit job losses is based on industry workforce surveys and reporting from retrofit sector organisations.
Fuel poverty statistics are drawn from UK government fuel poverty reports and national housing surveys.
Figures on housing conditions and NHS costs linked to poor housing come from research by organisations including the Building Research Establishment (BRE) and UK government housing data.
Information on future retrofit policy and job creation targets comes from the UK Government’s Warm Homes Plan documentation.